Gregory Gleason is a futures analyst at Benevant, a political risk consultancy focused on energy. Gleason uses Bayesian techniques for calculating counterpart decisions.  This methodology is not designed to define what will happen but to define what others (namely the counterparts) THINK will happen and what they are accordingly likely to act upon.  The methodology establishes expected values using a combination of frequency and conditional factors.  Conditional factors add a psychological dimension. For instance, standard anticipation models assume that actors are motivated in scalar proportions. Thus an actor who will do a lot for a $100 will naturally do a lot more for $1,000. Conditionalists look at this differently.  It is clear that motives are not scalar.  In terms of calculations related to gains—the more you have, the less more is worth. In terms of calculations related to risk—the less you have, the more less is worth.  Using Bayesian conditional probabilities to estimate counterpart risk calculations requires a great deal of context-sensitive information.

The main thing of importance about what people do is that they move. Human beings either stay in one place (not important) or they move (important).  There are only two choices here; one is important and one is not. So understanding why people move is key to understanding everything of importance. Gleason is an international security specialist with a fascination for rational and not-so-rational action which moves people in the sphere of world affairs. Gleason was originally trained as a “Sovietologist”. The Soviet Union was a system that was designed to eliminate markets, relegating them to the “trash can of history.”  But Gleason, standing one windy, cold morning in December 1991 on Red Square as the tattered flag of the Soviet Union was lowered, could not help but wonder if market forces didn’t have something to do with this widely unexpected turn of global events.  Gleason’s field of specialization was gone with the wind. (Good riddance)  But the gale moved Gleason in a new direction.  A vast inventory of superpower appurtenances were relegated to the trash can of history.  The scrambling remnants of societies transformed the newly independent countries into primary commodity exporters.  There were some lessons to be learned. So Gleason started watching the things that moved the most—it was metals first but then energy fuel resources soon afterwards.  Energy trade and electricity generation became a window into the dynamics of the new societies.  It wasn’t long before these sectors became windows into the dynamics of the whole new, globalizing world in which we all live.